As a fully-fledged, badge-wearing social media keyboard warrior, armed with nothing more than an opinion and a mood swing, I often attempt to put the world to rights. It doesn’t look like it’s working, to be honest, but whichever omnipresent being you subscribe to loves a trier.
Similarly, when I look back at the content of these posts each week since the pandemic started, I have contradicted myself more frequently than a government press conference. Theories and thoughts about how this pandemic will play out, specifically, relating to my ever so important holiday, have been a pick ‘n’ mix of ever-changing word vomit. This week shall be no different of course, but I feel better about things when I demonstrate a least a soupcon of self-awareness.
With the ever encouraging news around vaccines, it finally looks as though there may be an end to all this. It will be a more welcome prick than all the others we have endured so far in this pandemic, myself included.
With that news, I have of course, outside of proper worrying about real, important things, been applying these new facts to our holiday and how it all fits together. To keep true to form, I am literally having arguments with myself, simultaneously getting excited because March isn’t very far away now and fretting about how hard it will be to rearrange everything for late summer as March will absolutely not happen.
I try to keep informed as best anyone can with zero actual qualifications and knowledge on a subject so here, let me present the cases for both as they are forming in my mind.
- It won’t happen
The vaccine will probably start to get deployed in December. You need two jabs, a month apart and then there is another 14-day waiting period until you are “immune”. That alone takes us deep into February even for the first to be jabbed to be sorted out and then before any form of serious relaxation of restrictions for anything can be relaxed, including non-essential travel, it will need to be seen that these steps are keeping the level of daily deaths down to “normal” levels and hospitals aren’t busy with COVID patients.
The above only really applies to the UK of course. Many of you will have gathered that I have little faith in any competence being displayed in anything COVID related by our current government. Surely….surely they cannot mess up the vaccine rollout? It is literally the thing they have been praying for which will allow them to not have to focus all their time on the pandemic and get back to their routine agenda of punishing the poor, destroying our relationship with Europe, enriching their friends, removing our freedom of movement and intentionally making us all poorer because they don’t like foreigners.
However, we also have to consider the US in this equation. With the soundly beaten former President barricading himself into the Oval Office and his golf cart, refusing to allow a smooth transition, this incredibly and unforgivably will have an impact on the speed and efficiency of the US rollout of a vaccine. Assuming Biden can’t do much until the orange one is dragged from the White House in late January, then their timescales are inevitably pushed back. It’s not a question of course of whether the parks will be open, as they already are, but of course, more crucially are US borders open to us and then as a special bonus point, are the parks able to stop insisting on masks and social distancing.
I put it to you, m’lud, that all of the above result in us having to move stuff again.
2. It will happen
The aviation and travel industry are on their knees. As soon as the most vulnerable start to get immunised, then the rest of us can be a bit less careful and social distancing rules could be relaxed and things can start to open up again. These industries will be crying out for help and the earliest possible resumption of their normal schedules. As long as the most at risk are taken care of, and advised to continue to self isolate until their vaccine is effective then economies may return to some form of normality.
A member of Sage, the medical folks, not the accounting software, today has suggested that in the UK, early Spring could see the “lockdown” stuff being relaxed as the most vulnerable are vaccinated.
Could it be that our departure date, being the 1st of March and a signal that winter is over, be the actual date flights resume and we are on the first flight out to MCO, cheering, waving and being greeted at Orlando by cheerleaders and Joe Biden?
I rest my case(s).
On balance, the former seems to outweigh the latter if I am honest. The 1st of March just seems too close for everything to fall into place. As much as I like planning and booking stuff, the pain of doing so again fills me with dread and a foreboding of more expense as there is always more expense.
I already know our villa isn’t available for the rough dates we might like to move to and I am also filled with the horror of how busy everything might be in the late summer if things are normalish. I cannot cancel our villa and book another one now as I would lose the hefty deposit we have paid until travel is confirmed as not possible of course. Flight availability, a lack of decent villas and crowded parks are just the tip of anxiety iceberg.
As ever, these are trivial issues in a non-trivial situation, but hey, I need something to blog about right? It hasn’t helped (you) that the last week was a complete non-event house move wise, with no news, drama or updates to moan about. On that note, thanks for all the lovely comments and messages last week about our intended new home. Thank you for at least attempting to limit your eye rolls and disdain for the distasteful boasting. Once we’re in let’s have a blog reader house warming party. All three of you can stay over too.
Till the next time…….
Mkingdon's Blog 
Sadly I think option 1 is the most likely . I have little faith that the vaccine roll out won’t be a cock up. Hubbie who is over 50 and has COPD can’t get a flu vaccine for love nor money as no supplies within a 60 mile radius of here, the % of people who need this is tiny in comparison to the Covid vaccine. All that being said I an tentatively making plans to fly to Florida in late October next year .
I tend to agree Dawn. My faith in a successful roll out is low.
I keep thinking what it’s going to be like when the vaccine is readily available and anyone that needs or wants it has had it and we are allowed in the U.S.again. The demand for flights etc I imagine, will be enormous. The parks will be full with long wait times even with fast pass for the first few months.
Yep my fear too. Park reservations may be around for a while.
I read your blog every week but have never commented until now, would you really subject your family to an untried and tested vaccine just for the chance of a holiday to disney? Think what this could possibly do to any future grandkids.
Hi Peter. I’d take the vaccine not for the sake of a holiday but for the sake of getting some semblance of normality back to every day life and to avoid further economic devastation. The latter will have more impact on future grandkids than the slim possibility of the vaccine having substantial adverse effects.
I say this as I believe the vaccine will be tested. Most of the time spent on other vaccines is admin and delay due to a lack of funding. This vaccine in my view won’t be any less safe than any other. Ultimately I didn’t say that I’d take vaccine or have a holiday, it’s a more holistic concept of the most vulnerable getting protected so the rest of society can go back to some form of normal life, including non essential travel. It’s everyone’s prerogative of course but will be very comfortable having the vaccine. What is the alternative? Endless lockdowns, tiers and restrictions until we all go broke?
Bloody typos. 🙄 that should say….
Ultimately I didn’t say that I’d take a vaccine to have a holiday
Fingers crossed for you but I chickened out and moved my Feb 2021 as I seemed highly unlikely that the border would be open by then. It is now set for Apr 2022 and it depresses me, but from personal experience I know that the vaccines are being fully tested and that the speed of development is down to no red tape or funding issues, I am with you on taking the plunge once it is available and a return to some normality where we can once again start focussing on panicking about Brexit or whatever new crisis arises in the future. All I have to do now is persuade Disney and Universal to honour or swap my 2021 unusable tickets.
PMA all the way. 🙂
Best of luck with the tickets. I can’t imagine they would object.
Great news about vaccines, we are living in such a historic time that will be looked back on and talked about forever. It will be nice to think, this time last year, we got through it (I hope). Alas with Disney, I think it will be no.1. I say alas as we’re booked for the end of April with the payment due mid Jan. I can see we’re going to have to cancel and lose our deposit. Then I sit here thinking, change it to 2022 but I want to go in 2021, might as well cancel and book late, my mind goes round and round.